This Week on NBA Top Shot: KD Elite Pack Distribution Error
by Chris Otis
Welcome back to This Week on NBA Top Shot, a weekly blog from Otis Top Shot and your friends here at MomentRanks that dives into each week’s essential NBA Top Shot news and updates. Pack drops, Flash Challenges, marketplace insights, noteworthy sales, community news — we’ve got you covered on all of it and more.
Everything that happens on Top Shot can be a lot to keep up with — but you’ll be able to find it all here every week. This week was a doozy, to say the least, so let’s jump in.
tl;dr: This Week on NBA Top Shot
This past week started with the news that, for the month of February, Top Shot will be testing out a new pack format over the next several drops that will allow for collectors to have a chance at Rare and Legendary Moments in any pack in these drops. This is something that a lot of collectors have desired for as long as Top Shot has existed, so this was certainly a very exciting update.
These would start with two pack drops — KD Certified Standard and Elite packs, set to drop on Thursday.
However, the first of these drops, built around the new Game Recognize Game set featuring Moments narrated by Kevin Durant, went extremely poorly, with a bug causing the packs to be purchased in a non-random order. Simply put, MGLE and Holo Icon Moments were distributed to numbers at the end of the queue.
This prevented a fair distribution of the packs containing Rare and Legendary Moments across all queue numbers, so collectors near the front of the queue received packs containing only Common Moments. The next collectors in line all received packs with an MGLE Moment, and the end of the line was all of the Holo Icon Moments.
However, many at the end received up to five packs containing Legendary Holo Icon Moments, since the number of packs you could buy was between one and five based on Collector Score.
Due to the error, all of these KD Elite packs have been completely refunded in the form of non-withdrawable Dapper balance. Until Monday’s KD standard packs have all been distributed, these new Holo Icon, MGLE, and Game vs. Game Moments that were opened in Thursday’s packs will not be able to be listed on the marketplace.
I’ll get into more detail about all this throughout this piece, but let’s first move on to the market update.
Top Shot Market Update
With such big, unexpected news starting the week off, Flash Challenges keeping things dynamic nearly every night, and a controversy to cap things off, this week was certainly a wild one. Let’s see how the market reacted, keeping in mind that the full marketplace effects of the bug in yesterday’s drop won’t be known for at least a week or so.
Top Shot Marketplace Metrics
After both stumbled a bit last week, both the MR100 and Total Market Cap metrics spent much of this week recovering, with the MR100 re-approaching 2,200, and the Total Market Cap closing out the week above $850 million.
The 24-hour metrics saw more of the same pattern that has been present for awhile now – the daily numbers fluctuate greatly depending on the presence of Flash Challenges, and exactly what kind of Moments those Flash Challenges require. Activity this week seemed to peak around the Drive and Dish Flash Challenge, which will be discussed in more detail later on.
It remains to be seen what effects, if any, the issue with yesterday’s pack drops will have on the marketplace going forward, though the community has shared their concerns. But the data from this past week continued to signal strength and confidence in the market. Next week’s update should be more illuminating in regards to just how well the current market is able to deal with controversy and FUD after the randomization mishap.
Biggest Top Shot Sales of the Week
Series 1 Kevin Durant Run It Back Moments continued to be some of the hottest selling premier Moments on the platform this week, with two making the list of the top five biggest sales of the week. Coming in at the top spot this week, though, was a Series 1 Trae Young Holo MMXX Moment that sold for a whopping $32,111, more than twice the current average sales price for that Moment.
A shout-out is also in order for Top Shot collector Cuteknick — who is apparently a Nets fan despite the username — for his shopping spree this past week that saw three of his purchases crack our top five. Nice pick ups!
Top Shot Pack Drops This Week
As mentioned above, Top Shot is planning to spend the month of February experimenting with a new type of pack drop system, which is fully explained in this blog.
Essentially, the major change is that instead of Rare and Legendary Moments being confined to specific drops designed for those tiers that are gated behind high Collector Score requirements — such as Holo Icon drops — a new two-pronged pack drop system will see those Moments get released in Standard and Elite packs.
These packs will feature a certain number of guaranteed Common Moments (usually, if not always, Base Set), and an additional number of Moments that could be Common, Rare, or Legendary.
The specifics will vary by release, but the Elite packs will always be more expensive, contain greater odds at hitting valuable Moments, and be gated behind a drop-specific Collector Score requirement.
KD Certified Pack Drop
The Elite and Standard editions of the KD Certified Pack were set to be released on February 3, but as we all know, only the Elite pack was dropped in a disappointing fashion. Per the official NBA Top Shot Updates Twitter account, the Standard packs will be coming next Monday, February 7.
Controversy aside, though, let’s look at how these packs are constructed.
For the Elite packs, each one contained five Moments, including four guaranteed Series 3 Base Set Moments, and one additional Moment that could come from one of three sets:
- Common Game Recognize Game Set (90.477%)
- Rare MGLE Set (8.030%)
- Legendary Holo Icon Set (1.491%)
The packs originally cost $49 each, though all 22,000 pack purchases have now been refunded. Pack purchase limits were dictated by one’s Collector Score, with some collectors being able to buy up to five packs.
For the Standard packs on Monday, each one will contain four Moments for $19 each, including three guaranteed Series 3 Base Set Moments, and one additional Moment that could be:
- Base Set Moment (73.391%)
- Common Game Recognize Game Moment (23.974%)
- Rare MGLE Moment (2.554%)
- Legendary Holo Icon Moment (0.079%)
If anyone is wondering, that works out to 106 Holo Icon Moments across the 135,000 packs, which will cost $19 each, and also have purchase limits that are based on one’s Collector Score.
This Week in Top Shot Challenges
Several new Flash Challenges debuted this week alongside some more traditional Showcase Challenges based around the recent MGLE and Holo Icon drops, so let’s dive in and see what happened in the world of Top Shot Challenges this week.
Traditional Showcase Challenges
First and foremost, the two Showcase Challenges that began last week – Holo Icon 1 and MGLE 4, featuring DeMar DeRozan and Chris Duarte, respectively — finished up on January 31. The DeRozan Holo finished with 71 completions, while the Duarte MGLE finished with 392.
Following those up were Holo Icon 2, which featured Ja Morant’s ridiculous, gravity-defying two-handed block against the Lakers, and MGLE 5, featuring an Anthony Edwards masterclass in jaw-dropping athleticism. Both of these finished up on February 3, with the Ja block coming in at 77 completions, and the Edwards steal at 422.
The final remaining traditional Showcase Challenge at the moment is Holo Icon 3, which ends on February 7. The reward is Franz Wagner Moment that showcases the Orlando rookie’s power and intensity as he drives into the lane and promptly dunks over multiple defenders.
- Clean the Glass (Jan. 28-30)
- Easy: Any Moments from the top five players with the most total rebounds in the games from Jan. 28-30.
- Hard: Top Shot Debut Moments from the top five players with the most total rebounds in the games from Jan. 28-30.
- Easy: Kevin Love MSFE
- Hard: Rare Pack
- Drive and Dish (Jan. 31)
- Any Moments from the top five players in scoring and the top five players in assists from the games on Jan. 31.
- Takeover (Feb. 2)
- Easy: Any Moments from the top players in each game who had the most combined made free throws and made field goals in the games on Feb. 2.
- Hard: Top Shot Debut Moments from the top players in each game who had the most combined made free throws and made field goals in the games on Feb. 2, and/or Luka Doncic or LaMelo Ball Cool Cats Moments.
- Easy: Series 2 Base Set Pack
- Hard: Luka Doncic MSFE
- Join Forces (Feb. 3)
- A Series 1 or 2 Moment from any player on the team that has more assists from each game on Feb 3, and a Series 1 or 2 Moment from the top four players in assists from the games on Feb 3.
- Chris Paul MSFE
Miscellaneous Top Shot Updates
- Top Shot collectors based in France and Belgium were unfortunately unable to participate in the KD Certified Pack drops. It’s unknown whether this will be permanent for all packs that go across rarity levels.
- The Kevin Durant Top Shot Starter Challenge has been extended to February 11.
- NBA Top Shot introduced a Live Feed feature to their website, which will surely be fun to watch in the aftermath of big drops or Flash Challenge surprises.
- The Top Shot Economist explained the data behind the new pack drop model and how it affects the Series 3 Roadmap.
- Across the Dapperverse, NFL All Day Conference Championship packs dropped today, February 4, at 4 p.m. EST. These packs include Moments from the entire NFL Playoffs.
The Week Ahead on Top Shot
Well, we know for one thing that the Standard version of the KD Certified Packs will be dropping on Monday, February 7, at 11 a.m. PST/2 p.m. EST, but I wouldn’t expect any big drops beyond that one until the folks over at Top Shot are certain that the bug that caused yesterday’s debacle has been permanently squashed.
Rising Stars and the All-Star Set should be just around the corner, though, so keep your eyes peeled for announcements! The 2021 All-Star Break was one of the most exciting times on Top Shot last season, even in a peak time of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As always, keep an eye out for new Flash Challenges, and how Top Shot will handle pack drops and new challenges with the Holo Icon and MGLE Moments on their Twitter. All in all, barring any further unforeseen setbacks to Monday’s drop, next week should see things getting back on track in the world of Top Shot.
That’s all for this week everyone, thanks for reading and I’ll see you all back here next Friday.